Iran’s double crisis: defeats in war and diplomacy

By: Tahseen Ullah Tasir

In the ongoing war between Iran and Israel, while Iran faces several major losses on the battlefield, it also appears to be suffering from diplomatic isolation on the global stage. In this article, we will review the reasons why Iran is struggling on both fronts.

The first major loss Iran suffered was when Israel targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities. The attack by Israel had been predicted globally, yet Iran failed to prevent it. Iran’s intelligence services were completely ineffective in this regard, as Israel managed to set up a center near Tehran without Iran even getting wind of it.

The second loss Iran faced occurred when Israel targeted Iran’s military leadership. Eight of Iran’s key military commanders, including the commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guards, were killed. Additionally, nine of Iran’s nuclear scientists were also killed in Israeli attacks. Israel also targeted Iran’s oil depots and gas fields in an effort to weaken Iran’s economy.

Israel’s retaliatory strikes have certainly caused concern for Iran, but Iran lacks the advanced weapons to counter Israel’s modern arsenal. Iran can only launch four to five missile attacks, after which continuing the war would become extremely difficult. Iran could only succeed in a large-scale operation, but the chances of such an outcome are slim.

On the diplomatic front, Iran is also isolated. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE condemned Israel’s attacks, but none of these countries have offered cooperation or assistance to Iran. Other Arab nations are also not standing with Iran, and many of Iran’s missiles and drones are being neutralized in Jordan and Iraq, where the US air defense system is deployed.

There are several reasons behind Iran’s diplomatic isolation. The most significant reason is that Iran has yet to develop nuclear weapons, yet it is challenging the entire world. Iran’s slogans such as “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” are creating more adversaries globally.

Iran’s problem is that it is confronting global powers beyond its capabilities and resources, and its diplomatic front is not strong enough to withstand global pressure. While Pakistan also faced severe international pressure during its nuclear weapons development, Israel and India even planned to target Pakistan’s nuclear sites.

Pakistan not only thwarted this plan but also endured international pressure and successfully developed its atomic bomb. Today, Pakistan faces no global sanctions, and its relations are strengthened with the very countries that once strongly opposed Pakistan’s nuclear program. Even today, Pakistan receives loans from the IMF and the World Bank.

Iran must understand that in diplomacy, decisions are made with pragmatism and compromise, not emotions. For Iran, this is the moment to adopt a strategy to safeguard its interests on the global stage, in order to avoid further crises.

Also read: Is the world uniting against Israel?

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the publication’s official stance.